DOI: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2022.00151

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  Abstract: Abstract The invasive Japanese beetle ( Popillia japonica Newman ) can infest more than 300 types of host plants and has been classified as the second most important potential priority pest in Europe. Given growing concerns about its impact on the food sector, we apply a scenario approach, which accounts for spatial and temporal aspects of the invasion process, to estimate future damage costs for major European crops in the absence of management and in consideration of future climate scenarios based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the period 2040-2069. We find that potential damage costs can be substantial, ranging from �30 million to �7.8 billion per year. While we find heterogeneous effects across countries and crops, large grape producing countries like France and Italy have an immense damage potential of around �92 million and �68 million per year, respectively. This implies that a reduction of the spread speed of the beetle can generate positive externalities across the European food sector. Thus, European food policy should incentivize and reward early pest management. This includes measures to reduce spread associated with human activities, e.g. travels, such as increased pre- and post-border bio-security procedures, particularly during summer months when the beetle spread rate is highest. For countries where total control is no longer possible, we emphasize the importance of investments in monitoring and environmentally friendly control measures. Specifically, in industries with high preferences for organic products, research on biological controls is important as it supports key policy goals of reduced dependency on chemical pesticides, ecosystem restoration and market opportunities.

  Key words: countries; potential; european; food sector; crops; europ

  Submit time: 1 January 2022

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted agriXiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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