Edward M. Hill, Naomi S. Prosser, Eamonn Ferguson, Jasmeet Kaler, Martin Green, Matt J. Keeling, Michael J. Tildesle. Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour.. 2021. agriXiv.2021.00100
Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour.
DOI: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00100
Statement: This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed. It reports new research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
-
Abstract: Abstract Background: The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the behavioural characteristics of farmers and how that impacts the implementation of livestock disease control measures. Livestock owners may change their disease management behaviours in response to complex factors such as increased awareness of disease risks, pressure to conform with social expectations and the direct imposition of animal health regulations. Controls that are costly may make it beneficial for individuals to rely on the protection offered by others, though that may be sub-optimal for the population. Thus, failing to account for behavioural dynamics may produce a substantial layer of bias in infectious disease models. Methods: We investigated the role of vaccine behaviour across a population of farmers on epidemic outbreaks amongst livestock, caused by pathogens with differential speed of spread over spatial landscapes of farms for two counties in England (Cumbria and Devon). Under different compositions of three vaccine behaviour groups (precautionary, reactionary, non-vaccination), we evaluated from population- and individual-level perspectives the optimum threshold distance to premises with notified infection that would trigger responsive vaccination by the reactionary vaccination group. Results: On our data-informed livestock systems, we demonstrate a divergence between population and individual perspectives in the optimal scale of reactive voluntary vaccination response. In general, minimising the population-level cost requires a broader reactive uptake of the intervention, with individualistic behaviours increasing the likelihood of larger scale disease outbreaks. When the relative cost of vaccination was low and the majority of premises had undergone precautionary vaccination, then an individual perspective gave a broader spatial extent of reactive response compared to the population perspective. Conclusions: Mathematical models integrating epidemiological and socio-behavioural properties, and the feedback between them, can identify instances of strong disagreement between the intervention stringency that is best for a sole individual compared to the overall population. These modelling insights can aid our understanding of how stakeholders may react to veterinary health interventions.
Key words: vaccination; population; livestock; behaviour; the population; premiseSubmit time: 1 January 2021
Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted agriXiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. -
图表
-
Yaswant Kumar Pankaj, Rajeev Kumar, Lily Pal, Ragupati Nagarajan, Kulvinder S. Gill, Vishal Kumar, Sourav Panigrah. Performance and yield stability of doubled haploid population of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under high temperature regime.. 2021. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00088
Michelle A. North, James Franke, Birgitt Ouweneel, Christopher H. Triso. Global risk of heat stress to cattle under climate change.. 2020. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2020.00022
Daniel Paredes, Jay A. Rosenheim, Daniel S. Kar. The causes and consequences of pest population variability in agricultural landscapes.. 2021. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00084
Estelle Leroux, I. Llach, Gaelle Besche, Eliel González García, D. Montier, D. Montier, Pierre Marie Bouque. Growth and behaviour of post-weaned Mérinos d'Arles ewe lambs, as measured by a Walk-over-Weighing system under Mediterranean grazing conditions.. 2021. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00109
Chauncy Fan. Research trend of antimicrobial resistance in livestock farm of China in 21 century: a bibliometric analysis.. 2021. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00056
Suvita Rani, Shubham Singh, Sujit Bhattachary. What is the impact of India's plant variety protection act? An analytical examination based on registrations under this act.. 2020. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2020.00004
Saeed Nosratabadi, Nesrine Khazami, Marwa Ben Abdallah, Zoltan Lackner, Shahab S. Band, Amir Mosavi, Csaba Mak. Social capital contributions to food security: a comprehensive literature review.. 2020. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2020.00021
K. V. Daniel, Mark A. Bradford, Emma Fuller, Emily E. Oldfield, Stephen A. Woo. Soil organic matter effects on US maize production and crop insurance payouts under drought.. 2020. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2020.00018
M. Abdullah Shaikh, Michalis Hadjikakou, Brett A. Brya. Patterns and trends in national-level consumption and production-based utilisation of the land-system change planetary boundary.. 2020. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2020.00002
K. Shujaei, Adrian Gibbs, Mohammad Reza Hajizade. On the evolution and biogeography of Apple stem grooving capillovirus.. 2020. doi: 10.31220/agriRxiv.2020.00012
-
ID Submit time Number Download 1 2021-01-01 10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00100V1
Download -
-
Public Anonymous To author only
Get Citation
Article Metrics
- Read: 54
- Download: 0
- Comment: 0
